Two recent Jerusalem Post headlines on the same April day encapsulate our current moment. The first declared: "Most Americans unhappy with Obama's handling of Israel ties." The second: "Jewish leaders caught between criticizing, defending Obama."
What a contrast. The U.S. has now reached a point where American citizens are so comfortable with Israel that they prefer the policies of Jerusalem to the policies of Washington. And yet, at this moment, American Jewish leaders are struggling over the question of criticizing the administration's policies toward the Jewish state.
American Jews now differ from the rest of America—and the world—in understanding President Obama's coldness towards Israel. Despite the president's words and not-unsubtle actions, American Jews remain a loyal voting bloc in a party whose supporters are far less likely to be supportive of Israel than are those in the rival party (48 percent among Democrats, 85 percent among Republicans).
This seemingly unshakable loyalty has a real-world impact on Israel's future. If Obama knows that he can take for granted the Jewish vote, then he has very little incentive to take Israel's side in questions about the peace process, terrorism, or even its right to exist. In effect, Obama can invert James Baker's dictum "F--- the Jews, they didn't vote for us any way" to "F--- the Jews, they will vote for us anyway."
In this, American Jews are serving as critical enablers for Obama's ability to pursue his political interest and personal ideology. From his perspective, the Jews are in his corner and will remain there regardless of his behavior. To take just one example: Obama saw how a simple White House "seder" photo op could quiet stories about his poor treatment of Netanyahu. This leaves Obama free to pursue deeper relations with Israel's enemies with little fear of losing his Jewish constituency.
Jewish Republicans have long been simply watching events, like Vladimir and Estragon in Waiting for Godot. With each new development — the failure of Oslo, 9/11, Bush's staunch support for Israel, and Obama's coldness towards Israel — we hope a massive and dramatic shift is around the corner. We hope one event will cause Jewish voters to find a home in the Republican Party. Yet, as in Waiting for Godot, the awaited moment never arrives.
In contrast, opinion in Israel has experienced a tectonic shift. Israeli Jews have rejected the Obama approach, probably because their lives are directly on the line. Various polls have shown Obama's approval among Israeli Jews as low as 4 percent. This shows that Obama does have a considerable talent to unite the famously fractious sons of Abraham—in America for him; in Israel, against.
Still, Obama's shift of American foreign policy away from Israel may not be entirely costless. The saving grace, as it were, for Israel is not the Jews but the Gentiles of America, who see in Israel a kindred spirit in favor of modernity and opposed to terror. To the extent that Obama suffers for moving away from Israel, it will be because non-Jewish Americans reject his policies. In the meantime, Israeli Jews will continue to wonder why their American counterparts lag behind the rest of America.